Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 6th Assessment Report
Released on August 9th, 2021, the IPCC 6th Assessment Report (AR6) is a comprehensive scientific evaluation of climate change, its impacts, and potential mitigation strategies. Published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the report represents the collaborative efforts of hundreds of scientists from around the world, synthesizing the latest research on climate science. The IPCC itself was established by the United Nations and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) to provide policymakers with objective and transparent information on climate change. The AR6, released in phases starting in 2021, is divided into three working groups: the physical science basis, impacts and adaptation, and mitigation. These reports culminate in a synthesis report that integrates the findings across these areas.
Chapter 9 of the IPCC AR6 Working Group I report assesses past and projected changes in the ocean, cryosphere and sea level. It offers an in-depth analysis of observed and projected sea level changes, covering both global and regional scales. The chapter discusses the contributions of various processes to sea level rise, such as melting of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, the shrinking of mountain glaciers, and the thermal expansion of seawater due to rising temperatures.
The chapter explores potential future scenarios, depending on the level of greenhouse gas emissions and warming. It provides projections of relative sea level change from 2020 to 2150, as well as an indication of how these projections vary under different future scenarios. The contributions of different physical processes to future sea-level rise are also provided, indicating which processes will be the dominant drivers of future sea level for a given location.
The observational summary and the projections from Chapter 9 of the AR6 provide the basis for the information contained in the Sea Level Explorer on this site. For a comprehensive and accessible look at just the projections, users are encouraged to go to the IPCC Sea Level Projection Tool on the NASA Sea Level Change Team Portal. A summary of those projections at the country and city level is provided here and tied directly to the observations of sea level around the world.
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To access, visualize and download the full suite of global and regional sea level projections, visit the IPCC Projection Tool at the NASA Sea Level Change Team portal.
